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The easiest way to explain how to find value bets is with the example of a coin toss.
When tossing 🧾 a coin there can only be two outcomes; heads or tails. We know that the
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odds, this equals to an odds of 2.00 🧾 for either outcome.
This is called the “fair odds”
and represents the true probability of an outcome to occur if the 🧾 bookmaker wouldn’t
add their profit margin, or “vig”. To calculate the likelihood of this happening in
decimal odds we use 🧾 this formula: Odds = 1/probability in decimals. In this example,
the odds would be: 1/0.5= 2.00 which is the accurate 🧾 odds of this specific outcome to
happen.
A value bet
Now take the above coin toss example and imagine you were offered
🧾 odds of 2.10 on heads at one bookmaker. Would you take that bet? Does it have an edge?
Since you 🧾 get better odds than the actual probability of the outcome to happen you
should, of course, take the bet.
The odds 🧾 of 2.10 is higher than what the underlying
probability suggests, creating an edge – a value bet. The bigger the 🧾 difference, the
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against the 🧾 bookies.
When you place a value bet in sports betting, the expected value
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find value betting situations? Well, bookies don’t have a perfectly balanced betting
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The true odds
You might ask
yourself how we know what the real 🧾 probability, or the true odds, should be? Our value
bets finder compare millions of odds, market moves and other bookmaker 🧾 data against so
called sharp bookmakers. A sharp bookmaker has deep knowledge about the sports betting
market and has the 🧾 “real odds” which lies very close to actual true probability
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These accurate odds, together with 🧾 betting bias
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the value betting software 🧾 to finding odds with value in sports events. This together
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Under 0.5 goals is an alternative match goals betting market. Placing a bet on under 0.5 goals will win if the match finishes 0-0. If the match ends with any goals scored, the bet will lose. If one or more goals are scored, the bet loses. A 0.5 Asian Handicap is a popular betting market in sports betting. It is also known as a half-goal handicap. A 0.5 Asian Handicap means that one team starts the match with a half-goal advantage over the other team. |
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