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Sports betting is not just about who will win and who will lose a particular event. In
fact, the outcome of the overall event is completely irrelevant when wagering on many
proposition bets such as the yellow and red cards/total bookings markets.
Wagering on
yellow and red cards might not seem like an obvious bet choice to new punters, but it
is a very popular market amongst more seasoned bettors. This is because the statistics
are easy to research, and rules are straightforward.
This gives the bettor more of a
sense that they are making an informed decision based on data rather than just going on
gut instinct. Of all the stats-friendly markets, betting on cards is one of the easiest
for punters to quickly get up to speed on.
Those looking to become knowledgeable about
a particular market can easily find stats or keep their own records of cards issued in
their league of choice, or even across multiple leagues. By delving deep into these
niche markets, it can sometimes be easier to find high-value bets.
So let’s take a
closer look at the choices available in the bookings market.
First Bookings
There are
several ways in which you can bet on yellow and red cards. The first, and most simple,
way is to bet on which team will receive the first booking in the match.
The odds for
each team to be booked first are usually quite close to EVENS in this market, while the
odds for no booking at all are typically quite high, often as much as 16/1 such is the
rarity of this occurrence. You can find all betting odds explained in our handy
guide.
A much harder bet to predict is which player will be booked first, but there are
plenty of hot-headed characters out there who attract action in this market.
This bet
can also be attractive if there is a big derby game involving a player with a feisty
reputation. In such a situation, the next bet types could also come into play.
Team To
Have A Player Sent Off
Bettors who feel that a particular game might get a bit heated
could be tempted to delve into this market. Just predict if a team will have a player
sent off at any point in the encounter.
The price you are offered could be affected by
many factors such as the team’s reputation, their previous dismissal record and which
team they are facing.
A Specific Player To Be Sent Off
Much like the previous bet but
you must name the player who you think is going to see red. Certain players are more
likely to get sent off than others and certain games can produce more reds than
others.
Identifying the teams, players and head-to-head encounters that are more likely
to draw a dismissal is the key to finding value in this market.
Of the players still
active in the game, Real Madrid’s Sergio Ramos holds the record for the highest number
of red cards received with a total of 23 accumulated over a 16 year period.
But
remarkably, he has never been sent off while playing for the Spanish national team
despite making 149 appearances.
Having said that, Ramos still has a long way to go to
match the record of 46 red cards picked up by retired Colombian defensive midfielder
Gerardo Bedoya.
The hot-headed former Millonarios and Santa Fe man was once suspended
for 15 matches for violent conduct following an incident in the Bogota derby.
Total
Booking Points
This market is appealing to regular punters because there is no
requirement to predict the exact player or team to which the cards will be
issued.
Wagers are simply placed according to the overall number of booking points that
will be accumulated in the game.
To bet in this market you need to understand the
booking points system. All bookmakers use a points system to allocate values to the
cards.
For example, at 888sport, the following point are allocated bookings:
Yellow
card = 10 points
Red card = 25 points
Two yellow cards leading to a red = 35
points
This makes it easy for bettors to understand and allows markets to be set at
certain benchmarks. Here are a few bets that you may be offered in this market:
Over
3.5 booking points
Under 3.5 booking points
Home team Under 1.5 booking points
Home
team Over 1.5 booking points
Home team Under 1.5 booking points
Home team Over 1.5
booking points
So, for the Premier League match between Arsenal and Newcastle in
December, 888sport were offering 5/4 for under 3.5 cards and 11/20 for over 3.5
cards.
However, Arsenal were 6/4 to receive over 1.5 points, while Newcastle were 1/2
in the same market, suggesting that visitors were expected to take up more space in the
referee's book.
Handicap Cards Betting
Handicap betting on cards works the same as in
any other soccer handicap market. The bookmaker will give one side an advantage or head
start over the other in order to balance any perceived bias between the two.
A team
with a -1 handicap would have to receive one booking point just to draw level with the
other team who would start with a +1 handicap. If the first team received two more
booking points than the second, the handicap bet would win.
But if they received the
same or fewer points, the second team would win. If the first team received one more
point, the points would be equal when the handicap is applied resulting in a push
result and stakes would be returned.
The push scenario can be avoided with fractional
handicaps. So, one team might have a -0.5 handicap and the other a +0.5. In this
situation, a push is not possible as one team would always have the edge over the
other.
For example, if the first team (-0.5) gets one more card than the second team
(+0.5) they would have a half point advantage and would the bet would. But if they have
the same or fewer points, they would lose once the handicap is applied.
Crunching The
Numbers
You can look at stats to help you make a decision. For example, with 18 games
played this season, all of Brighton and Hove Albion’s away matches had produced 3.5
booking points or less, while 77.8% of West Ham’s away games had produced that number
or higher.
It is also worth noting that some match referees tend to give out more
yellow cards per game than others, while some hand out fewer yellows but are more
likely to show red.
These kind of discrepancies can be used to help you make your final
decision. So it is important to check which man in black will be taking charge of a
game before placing any bets.
By looking at all the numbers and also considering other
factors such as card-happy referees, derby matches etc. sharp punters can make accurate
estimations about the total number of booking points in a game.
*Odds subject to change
- correct at time of writing*
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