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Buster
Blackjack
Introduction
I 4️⃣ saw Buster Blackjack in Lake Tahoe on July 9, 2024, but I
think it has been around for years. The 4️⃣ bet wins if the dealer busts. The more cards it
takes, the more the player wins. The bet is marketed 4️⃣ by AGS.
Rules
The rules to the
side bet are quite simple. If the dealer busts, then the player wins according to 4️⃣ how
many cards were needed to bust. If the dealer does not bust, then the side bet loses. I
know 4️⃣ of two pay tables, which are shown below. All wins are on a "to one"
basis.
Version 1 Pay Table Cards 4️⃣ Pays 8 or more 250 7 50 6 15 5 4 3 or 4 2
Version 2
assumes that if the 4️⃣ player gets a blackjack, then the dealer will still play out his
hand.
Version 2 Pay Table Cards Pays 8+ cards 4️⃣ & player BJ 2000 7 cards & player BJ 800
8+ cards & no player BJ 250 7 cards & 4️⃣ no player BJ 50 6 cards 18 5 cards 4 3 or 4 cards
2
Pay Table 1 Analysis
The following table 4️⃣ shows the probability and return of all
possible outcomes, assuming six decks and the dealer hits a soft 17. The 4️⃣ lower right
cell shows a house edge of 6.21%.
Pay Table 1 — Six Decks — Dealer Hits Soft 17 Event
4️⃣ Pays Probability Return Bust with 8 cards 250 0.000012 0.002986 Bust with 7 cards 50
0.000214 0.010722 Bust with 6 4️⃣ cards 12 0.002638 0.031651 Bust with 5 cards 4 0.020473
0.08189 Bust with 4 cards 2 0.089392 0.178784 Bust with 4️⃣ 3 cards 2 0.173032 0.346064
Dealer doesn't bust -1 0.714241 -0.714241 Total 1.000000 -0.062143
The next table shows
the house edge 4️⃣ for other number of decks and whether the dealer hits or stands on soft
17.
House Edge Summary Decks Stand on
Soft 4️⃣ 17 Hit on
Soft 17 1 8.77% 6.89% 2 8.48%
6.51% 4 8.31% 6.29% 5 8.27% 6.25% 6 8.25% 6.21% 8 4️⃣ 8.22% 6.17%
Pay Table 2 Analysis
The
following table shows the probability and return of all possible outcomes, assuming six
decks and 4️⃣ the dealer stands on a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of
6.20%.
Pay Table 2 — 4️⃣ Six Decks — Dealer Stands on Soft 17 Event Pays Probability Return
8+ cards & player BJ 2000 0.00000037 0.000746886 4️⃣ 7 cards & player BJ 800 0.00000786
0.006284453 8+ cards 250 0.00000808 0.002024582 7 cards 50 0.00016478 0.008239127 6
cards 4️⃣ 18 0.00231512 0.041672197 5 cards 4 0.01911939 0.076477552 3 or 4 cards 2
0.26030574 0.520611475 No bust -1 0.71807866 -0.718078658 4️⃣ Total 1.00000000
-0.062026386
Mega Blackjack
Mega Blackjack is a blackjack variant that has special pay
tables for the Buster Blackjack bet, as 4️⃣ shown below. Note that for pay table 3 the
dealer must bust with four or more cards for the side 4️⃣ bet to win.
Buster Blackjack
Version 3 Event Pays Probability Return Bust with 8+ cards 250 0.000012 0.002986 Bust
with 7 4️⃣ cards 50 0.000214 0.010722 Bust with 6 cards 15 0.002638 0.039564 Bust with 5
cards 10 0.020473 0.204726 Bust with 4️⃣ 4 cards 6 0.089392 0.536351 All other -1 0.887272
-0.887272 Total 1.000000 -0.092923
Version 2 of Buster Blackjack has a pay 4️⃣ table that
pays for any busted dealer hand of three or more cards. The lower right cell shows a
house 4️⃣ edge of 13.79%.
Buster Blackjack Version 4 Event Pays Probability Return Bust
with 8+ cards 250 0.000012 0.002986 Bust with 7 4️⃣ cards 50 0.000214 0.010722 Bust with 6
cards 15 0.002638 0.039564 Bust with 5 cards 4 0.020473 0.081890 Bust with 4️⃣ 4 cards 3
0.089392 0.268175 Bust with 3 cards 1 0.173032 0.173032 All other -1 0.714240 -0.714240
Total 1.000000 -0.137870
Evolution 4️⃣ Gaming
The live dealer studio by Evolution Gaming
offers a game called Infinite Blackjack with the following pay table. The other 4️⃣ rules
are eight decks, dealer stands on soft 17, and the dealer always plays out his hand,
even if the 4️⃣ player gets blackjack. The lower right cell shows a house edge of
6.18%.
Evolution Gaming Pay Table and Rules Event Pays 4️⃣ Probability Return Bust with 8+
cards 250 0.000009 0.002216 Bust with 7 cards 100 0.000177 0.017679 Bust with 6 cards
4️⃣ 50 0.002337 0.116829 Bust with 5 cards 9 0.019139 0.172254 Bust with 4 cards 2 0.087163
0.174325 Bust with 3 4️⃣ cards 1 0.173015 0.173015 Dealer doesn't bust -1 0.718160
-0.718160 Total 1.000000 -0.061842
General Dealer Analysis
As long as I took the
4️⃣ trouble to analyze this bet, I created a table showing the probability of various
dealer events for a six-deck and 4️⃣ eight-deck games and whether the dealer hits or stands
on a soft 17.
Dealer Probabilities — Six Decks Event Stand Soft 4️⃣ 17 Hit Soft 17 Dealer
blackjack 0.0474894880039574 0.0474894880039574 Total of 17 0.1452452688762730
0.1334589459656700 Total of 18 0.1392577712671790 0.1412046774882130 Total of 4️⃣ 19
0.1336847392868550 0.1356816733415020 Total of 20 0.1795273038236620 0.1815306022489940
Total of 21 0.0728740870713831 0.0748744175668735 Bust with 3 cards 0.1730318431697950
0.1730318431697950 Bust 4️⃣ with 4 cards 0.0872738945778543 0.0893918097334332 Bust with 5
cards 0.0191193879779139 0.0204725508735587 Bust with 6 cards 0.0023151220619265
0.0026376021859953 Bust with 7 4️⃣ cards 0.0001726381111420 0.0002144441681795 Bust with 8
cards 0.0000082097440626 0.0000115279883244 Bust with 9 cards 0.0000002420252193
0.0000004080497202 Bust with 10 cards 0.0000000039733294 4️⃣ 0.0000000090950948 Bust with
11 cards 0.0000000000293970 0.0000000001198596 Bust with 12 cards 0.0000000000000475
0.0000000000008244 Bust with 13 cards 0.0000000000000000 0.0000000000000022 Total
4️⃣ 1.0000000000000000 1.0000000000000000
Dealer Probabilities — Eight Decks Event Stand
Soft 17 Hit Soft 17 Total of 17 0.145215 0.133409 Total of 4️⃣ 18 0.139318 0.141280 Total
of 19 0.133629 0.135630 Total of 20 0.179709 0.181714 Total of 21 0.072838 0.074841
Blackjack 0.047451 4️⃣ 0.047451 Bust with 3 cards 0.173015 0.173015 Bust with 4 cards
0.087163 0.089276 Bust with 5 cards 0.019139 0.020491 Bust 4️⃣ with 6 cards 0.002337
0.002661 Bust with 7 cards 0.000177 0.000219 Bust with 8 cards 8.60E-06 1.21E-05 Bust
with 9 4️⃣ cards 2.63E-07 4.44E-07 Bust with 10 cards 4.58E-09 1.06E-08 Bust with 11 cards
3.76E-11 1.55E-10 Bust with 12 cards 8.35E-14 4️⃣ 1.29E-12 Bust with 13 cards 0.00E+00
4.56E-15
External Links
Discussion of Buster Blackjack in my forum at Wizard of
Vegas.
Discussion of Buster 4️⃣ Blackjack in my forum at Card Counting the Buster Blackjack
Side Bet at A.P. Heat.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
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