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Originally Posted by Mr Rick
First of all I have a lot of respect for you from your
posts. I'm guessing you will be a solid winning player over time.
I have had downswings
that have lasted over a year. Since 2012 I have averaged over 90 live tournaments a
year, typically in theR$300 toR$600 range but I do play WSOP Seniors events and the
WSOP Main twice.
What I do now, especially when I am in a downswing, is look at how my
all-ins are faring against both the odds of surviving and against the pot odds.
So for
example if I am in a tourney late and I lose a flip it is different to me if I have
survived other all-in flips or if this is my first. In other words were my chances of
overall survival up to that point ~%50 or more like 1% to 2%?
In one tournament in Las
Vegas I had 1 all-in where I was a 70% favorite to win. And I had just lost KK to A9s
for over 2/3 of my stack. While I was upset that I hadn't gone deep I understood that I
couldn't have played much better.
But in most tournaments my chances of surviving
before I get knocked out are usually between 10% and 20%.
I now look at this two ways.
The first is that it is difficult to run very very deep. So I take it with a grain of
salt when I get knocked out in like 10th. The second is that I need to improve my game
in the beginning of tournaments so that I will either double up or more early rather
than waiting until later.
Don't know if this is helpful or not. But I do think the
positive thing is that you are +EV!
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